MAY, 2012: In this paper, the fuel savings, relative initial costs, and breakeven gasoline prices for mid-sized passenger cars utilizing advanced powertrains in 2015-2045 are compared to those using conventional and advanced engine/transmission power trains that would be available in the same time periods. The advanced powertrains considered are hybrid-electric (HEV and PHEV) and all-electric (EV) powered by batteries alone or by a hydrogen fuel cell. Large fuel savings compared to 2007 conventional passenger cars are projected by 2030:
- 45% with advanced engines in conventional vehicles
- 60% in hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs).
- 62% for the PHEV-20 (energy savings - combined gasoline and wall-plug electricity)
- 75% for the PHEV-40
- 72% for the FCHEV
- 79% for the BEV
COST EFFECTIVE COMPARISONS:
- $2.50-3.00/gal gasoline (break-even) HEV ; five year payback period, 4% discount rate, and 12,000 miles/year.
- This was even lower than that for the conventional vehicles using the same advanced, high efficiency engine.
- $4 to $5/gal (break-even) for BEVs (100 mile range) even for the low end of the expected $300/kWh -700/kWh battery costs
- FUEL CELLS ARE COST-COMPETITIVE with HEVs and ICE vehicles using advanced engines ... target fuel cell costs of $30–50/kW, 10-year life, and hydrogen prices in the $2.50–$ 3.00/kgH2 range